the following data summarizes the historical demand of a product.

Question

Month: March, April, May, June, July, August Acutual Demand: 20, 25, 40, 35, 30, 45 Use exponential smoothing with a=.2 and the smoothed forecast for july is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Answer 1

MAPD =(1/n) Σ abs((Actual-Forecast)/Actual )* 100

 

           = (1/3) (abs ((35-32)/35) + abs((30-38)/30 )+ abs((45-42)/45) )

 

           = (1/3) * (3/35 + 8/30 + 3/45)

 

           = (1/3) * (0.08571 + 0.2667 + 0.0667) = 0.13965