the life time of a set of batteries on a toy car is exponentially distributed with mean lifetime of 2 weeks. When a set of batteries runs out, it is immediately  replaced. Using the Normal Approximation, find the probability that more than 25 sets of batteries will be required in 40 weeks. (8 marks)
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1 Answer

If one set of batteries lasts 2 weeks on average, the average number of sets in 40 weeks would be 20.

The Poisson distribution is exponential and the mean and variance have the same value=20.

For a normal approximation we want N(20,20), but we have to apply a continuity correction because Po(X>25) uses discreet X but a normal distribution (and its approximation) use a continuous random variable. The "bandwidth" for discreet random variables is 1 unit or X±0.5. Therefore we need to adjust for N: N(X>25.5). We also need to standardise for Z: (25.5-20)/√20=1.23 approx. (standard deviation is the square root of the variance). This means that the difference between X and the mean is 1.23 standard deviations away from the mean, and we can look that up in tables for normal distribution.

This value of Z corresponds to a probability of 0.8907; but this is the area to the left of Z (cumulative probability for less than 1.23), and we want the area to the right, so we need 1-0.8907=0.1093, which approximates to 11%. This means the probability of more than 25 sets of batteries is about 11%.

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